It is clear that global warming is as much a political as a scientific problem, and that an extraordinary number of people do not believe it is happening, with 40% in the UK and over 50% in the USA falling into that category. I have been faintly amused as well as seriously worried by the number of people who are dissentients and who seem to have excellent reasons for so being. A particularly fierce example travels from the UK to Greece and back almost weekly, but others are fond of racing cars, or international air travel, and many are just very comfortable as they are. Anyway you get the idea.
So I was interested when a comment by George Marshall in New Scientist (here) covered this area (his survey was also informal). He says “I do not accept that this continuing rejection of the science is a reflection of media distortion or scientific illiteracy. Rather, I see it as proof of our society’s failure to construct a shared belief in climate change”. They also include a lovely image which a can’t help but include at the bottom of the post.
This is exactly what I have called “gut feel”. Although the basic science is now well beyond dispute, and even though we have a decent chance of trashing our civilisation well within a hundred years we don’t have any real sense of urgency, and the political debate is still framed in terms of what is economically possible rather than what is necessary.
At the recent G8 leaders conference there was, for the first time an agreement that we must not allow the globe to warm by more than 2 degrees (above pre-industrial). All very well, but none of the difficult questions were addressed. No short term 2020 reduction targets were published and even the long term 2050 target of 80% reduction was fudged (it was compared to “1990 or a more current year” which because emissions are rising rapidly might dilute the target by a quarter).
We have chosen 2 degrees as a safe level of warming, but the truth of the matter is that there are large uncertainties in the warming needed for the various feedbacks to become important. Given that there are many different ways the warming can accelerate out of our control we are being incredibly blasé about the risks we are taking.
The old allusion to our attitudes to climate change being like a frog in a pan of cold water on the stove has also turned out to be false, and not in a flattering way either. As Joseph Romm explains in Grist frogs will stay in a pan of warming water as it boils but only if their brain has been removed first. When left in a more natural state they try and get out when the water reaches 25 degrees.
I can’t help thinking that we are very like young Albert with his ‘orse’s ‘ead ‘andle poking Wallace in the ear. Eventually it will end in tears.
