First a frightening video from the Environmental Defense Fund (via Climate Progress) showing that we have known about our “Oil Problem” for decades, but somehow never quite got round to doing anything about it. I suspect the fossil fuel industry lobby had and has something to do with that.


There is an increasing gulf between what Australians say they want, and what their mainstream politicians are prepared to offer. Part of this is the complete lack of guts in the major parties, who are busy removing any policy that might loose them any votes, and who are paranoid about offending any business. This will shortly ensure that neither of them has any policy at all, and deliver an election where the voters see no real difference between the major parties. The other half is that Australians, while three quarters of them say they want action on climate change, don’t want to pay for it, and certainly don’t have any idea of the scale of the necessary changes. The pollies seem to think that if they knew they would run a mile, and they may well be right, given that the US looks to have given up any attempt to get a climate bill through the Senate, which probably kills off any meaningful international action until something very nasty frightens us.

What is interesting is that the mainstream media here seems to be increasingly interested in the lack of action on climate change, with the Sydney Morning Herald today having links to three articles calling for action on the front page of their website. (here, here and here – OK they also had the dreadful Miranda Devine drivelling on but we won’t go there). The last of the three articles even discusses the recently published Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan. This starts with the premise which I’ve discussed in the past, that because Australia’s per capita emissions are so high, if each person now living was given an equal share of the remaining “safe” emissions, our share would run out in roughly 5 years, and then looks at what could be done to convert to a completely renewable stationary energy supply by 2020, using existing technology. While the plan is not perfect (see here for what I see as a biased critique from Bravenewclimate readers who are obviously disappointed that it doesn’t include any nuclear) it shows that we could probably convert most if not all of our generation to renewables for close to the study cost of $37 billion a year over 10 years, or 3% of the economy. If the costs were passed on in full then electricity would increase by 30-50% in price. Contrast this with the tariff increases of between 44% and 62% over the next 3 years announced recently. Not too shabby for a total revamp of generation capability within 10 years, and it must be said that costs are likely to fall quickly once changes of this scale start to bite. Not only does this deliver a massive boost the local manufacturing economy, create lots of green jobs and get rid of many of the sources of pollution we live with now, but it promises major benefits in a world which is slowly but surely running out of oil, as even Lloyds of London discusses in a report that states:-

“Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences”

Another recent report from the UN shows that not only do corporations do massive damage to the environment, but that this damages their investors as well. The language is particularly blunt, calling modern businesses “soulless corporations” and likening them to a cancer on society, and stating:-

“We have created a soulless corporation that does not have any innate reason to be ethical about anything… The purpose of a corporation is its own self-interest. That is law. So it’s up to society and its leaders and thinkers to design the checks and balances that are needed to ensure that the corporation does not simply become cancerous, and that’s something that sometimes we do and sometimes we really don’t.”

No surprise therefore that people are getting a bit agitated, from George Monbiot posting one of his excellent articles on the role of government in regulating business, to a website which asks Labor voters to pledge not to vote for them unless they make a real commitment on climate.

Unfortunately it takes years of many people getting agitated (George has been doing it for decades) to turn the tide of public opinion. Vote for the Greens in the Senate, and keep talking about the problem, and hope we aren’t too late.

 

I have just realised that one of my heroes, science fiction author Kurt Vonnegut, suggested in 1990 that one day soon we will all go “belly-up like guppies in a neglected fishbowl.” He suggested an epitaph for our planet “We could have saved it, but we were too darn cheap and lazy.” It seems to hit the nail on the head.

Everywhere I seem to look, people are realising that we have, in the last 50 or so years, almost totally ignored energy efficiency in pursuit of convenience or short term cost, or even worse, just because we don’t care. In many cases we can improve efficiency by adopting and adapting old fashioned techniques, as in the case of this new zero energy laboratory where the design leader John Andary said

“We went back to simple design techniques that were used before there were electric lights and before we had air conditioning compressors. What you had then were narrow buildings that optimized the use of daylight and windows you could open to provide ventilation.”

It is already obvious that Europe is significantly ahead of the rest of the world, presumably as a result of their earlier legislation, which while it has been widely condemned as confused and much too weak, is at least putting manufacturers on notice that change is coming. Imagine what would happen if we actually got serious and put a real price on carbon, without the massive bribes to the current big polluters.

The US is experiencing a “monster heat wave” which has even mainstream media talking climate change, while exceptional temperature have been recorded from Beijing to Kuwait where temperatures of 53 degrees in the shade has caused a power crisis. So far 2010 is the hottest year on record. On top of the gulf oil spill, this seems to be slowly building support for a climate bill, though the odds of anything significant still look remote. However the Gruen Transfer had a lovely ad on their segment “the Pitch”, which challenges ad agencies to sell the unsellable. This week “To come up with a campaign that convinces us an oil spill is a good thing.” The second entry by Lunch Partners, used Prof. Tim Flannery to excellent effect.

Lastly Climate Denial Crock of the Week has a video on “Climate Change and National Security” which I embed below. Well worth watching.


 

However, in keeping with the current norms, the bad news is considerably worse than the good is good.

Firstly carbon dioxide emissions from the western world fell a record 7% in 2009.

Unfortunately the fall was caused by the recession rather than any deliberate attempt to cut emissions.

Even worse the entire reduction was offset by steep rises in China and India.

The report by a Dutch group shows that China’s emissions in 2009 were just higher than France at 6.1 tons per capita. However both are dwarfed by the USA (17.2) and Australia at 18.8 tons per capita, the highest of the countries analysed.

What do you do as good scientist when some folk doubt your science and claim many scientists are uncertain etc etc? Well you apply science to the problem of course. In a report called “Expert credibility in climate change” a group review the publication history and number of citations (well accepted as a measure of credibility in science) of those making convinced and unconvinced comments about te evidence for global warming. They find that the unconvinced group represent between 2% and 3% of the top scientists, depending on wether you include the top 50 or 200. They also show that the unconvinced group have half the “expertise” as their opponents and have a much lower publication rate.

Lastly a graphic published in technology review shows why efficiency is key to reducing emissions. I reproduce it below, with a larger version available via the link. It shows that 44.6% of the energy we use is lost in conversion from chemical to mechanical or electrical energy. This doesn’t include losses further down the line which bring the total to over 50%. So we are wasting more than half the energy we use. This should be our main focus, as it can actually save us money in many cases.

We must keep the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha